This project develops a strategy for the implementation of a Mediterranean Forecasting System aimed at the prediction of the marine ecosystem variability in the coastal areas up to the primary producers and from the time scales of days to months. Such a predictive capability is required to sustain an healthy coastal environment and its management.
A forecasting system of such kind requires two essential parts, an observing system and a numerical modelling/data assimilation component that can use the past observational information to optimally initialise the forecast. The technical rationale of the Project is based upon the hypothesis that both hydrodynamics and ecosystem fluctuations in the coastal/shelf areas of the Mediterranean are intimately connected to the large scale general circulation. The second assumption is that, for the physical components of the ecosystem, monitoring and numerical modelling can work almost pre-operationally. A major goal of the proposal is to show that Near Real Time (NRT) forecasts of the large scale basin currents are possible.